Thursday 14 August 2014

Making the NHL's Loser Point Work



The NHL is a unique league. Of the "Big 4" sports leagues, the NHL is the only one that awards teams for losing in overtime by giving the losing team 1 point while the winner gets 2. A simple search on Google for "loser point NHL" turns up with numerous articles urging the NHL to get rid of the loser point (or the "Bettman Point"). But, I like the loser point, and I might be the only one. My rationale behind it is that if you're trailing and you manage to come back and force overtime, you deserve something for it. Likewise, if you're winning and you blow your lead, you deserve to lose a point. The system isn't perfect, but I think there's a way we can tweak it.

What is the loser point?

The loser point was introduced during the 1999-2000 NHL season. Prior to that, teams got 0 points for an overtime loss, but ties were still a thing in the NHL back then. If your team tied, you and your opponent would each get 1 point. The problem was teams didn't want to risk ending the game with 0 points, so they settled for a tie. The addition of the loser point allowed for teams to take a risk in OT by going for the win, but without risking coming away with nothing.

During the 1998-1999 season, the year before they introduced the loser point, teams averaged 12 ties. During the 1999-2000 season, after the addition of the loser point, that average dropped to just over 10 ties.

What's wrong with it?

A problem that many people have with it now is the addition of the shootout. Since the 2005-2006 season, teams would go into a 3-man shootout if there was no decision by the end of overtime, eliminating ties. However, teams started to hold back during OT to take their chances during the shootout, which is, in essence, a crapshoot. 

The NHL tried to combat this by introducing a new tiebreaking rule. If a team is tied in points, the tiebreaker will go to the team that has won the most regulation and overtime games (wins minus shootout wins). This created a new section in the standings known as "ROW" (Regulation and Overtime Wins), making the shootout less relevant.

How can we make the loser point work?

As I mentioned above, most of the criticism of the loser point is because of the addition of the shootout. I propose we make the shootout even less relevant. Here's how:

Regulation/Overtime win= 2 points
Overtime Loss/Shootout Win= 1 Point
Regulation/Shootout Loss= 0 points

If we take away the loser point for shootout losses and make a shootout win only 1 point, it eliminates teams trying to hold off until the shootout. Imagine the playoff races in April!

Now you can argue that the team that really needs the 2 points can just pull their goalie for an extra attacker in overtime and if they get scored on, they still get one point anyways. You would be wrong. As per Rule 84.2:

A team shall be 
allowed to pull its goalkeeper in favour of an additional skater in the 
overtime period. However, should that team lose the game during the 
time in which the goalkeeper has been removed, it would forfeit the 
automatic point gained in the tie at the end of regulation play, except if 
the goalkeeper has been removed at the call of a delayed penalty 
against the other team."

This is a rule already in place in the NHL so it would eliminate stupid plays like that from being commonplace.

Would the proposed changes really make that much of a difference?

Let's find out:


These were the standings of the 2013-2014 season:

Atlantic:

P-1. Boston 54-19-9 117P Shootout: 3-6
X-2. Tampa Bay 46-27-9 101P Shootout: 8-6
X-3. Montreal 46-28-8 100P Shootout: 6-3
X-4. Detroit 39-28-15 93P Shootout: 5-9
5. Ottawa 37-31-14 88P Shootout: 7-7
6. Toronto 38-36-8 88P Shootout: 9-4
7. Florida 29-45-8 Shootout: 8-6
8. Buffalo 21-51-10 52P Shootout: 7-5

Metropolitan:

Y-1. Pittsburgh 51-24-7 109P Shootout: 7-3
X-2. New York Rangers 45-31-6 96P Shootout: 4-3
X-3. Philadelphia 42-30-10 94P Shootout: 3-8
X-4. Columbus 43-32-7 93P Shootout: 5-2
5. Washington 38-30-14 90P Shootout: 10-11
6. New Jersey 35-29-18 88P Shootout: 0-13
7. Carolina 36-35-11 83P Shootout: 2-4
8. New York Islanders 34-37-11 79P Shootout: 9-6

Central:

Y-1. Colorado 52-22-8 112P Shootout: 5-4
X-2. St. Louis 52-23-7 111P Shootout: 9-3
X-3. Chicago 46-21-15 107P Shootout: 6-8
X-4. Minnesota 40-31-11 91P Shootout: 4-5
X-5. Dallas 40-31-11 91P Shootout: 4-5
6. Nashville 38-32-12 88P Shootout: 2-9
7. Winnipeg 37-35-10 84P Shootout: 8-6

Pacific:

Z-1. Anaheim 54-20-8 116P Shootout: 3-6
X-2. San Jose 51-22-9 111P Shootout: 10-7
X-3. Los Angeles 46-28-8 100P Shootout: 8-6
4. Phoenix (Arizona) 37-30-15 89P Shootout: 6-7
5. Vancouver 36-35-11 83P Shootout: 5-7
6. Calgary 35-40-7 77P Shootout: 7-3
7. Edmonton 29-44-9 67P Shootout: 4-3

So as you can see there were a lot of shootouts last season, teams averaged about 12 shootouts last season so my suggested changes will have an impact on the standings. Below are the results under my new point system. I have moved shootout wins to the OTL column and shootout losses to the regulation losses column:

Atlantic:

P-
1. Boston 51-25-6 108P
X-2. Montreal 40-31-11 91P (+1)
X-3. Tampa Bay 38-33-11 87P (-1)
X-4. Detroit 34-37-11 79P
5. Ottawa 30-38-14 74P
6. Toronto 29-40-13 71P
7. Florida 21-51-10 52P
8. Buffalo 14-56-12 40P

Metropolitan:

Y-
1. Pittsburgh 44-27-11 99P
X-2. New York Rangers 41-34-7 89P
X-3. Columbus 38-34-10 86P (+1)
X-4. Philadelphia 39-38-5 86P (-1)
5. Carolina 34-39-9 77P (+2)
6. New Jersey 35-42-5 75P
7. Washington 28-41-13 69P (-2)
8. New York Islanders 25-43-14 64P

Central:

Y-
1. Colorado 47-26-9 103P
X-2. St. Louis 43-26-13 99P
X-3. Chicago 40-29-13 93P
X-4. Dallas 36-36-10 82P (+1)
X-5. Minnesota 35-35-12 82P (-1)
6. Nashville 36-41-5 77P
7. Winnipeg 29-41-12 70P

Pacific:

Y-1. Anaheim 51-26-5 107P
X-2. San Jose 41-29-12 94P
X-3. Los Angeles 38-34-10 86P
4. Phoenix (Arizona) 31-37-14 76P
5. Vancouver 31-42-9 71P
6. Calgary 28-43-11 67P
7. Edmonton 25-47-10 60P

As you can see, the proposed new system does not punish teams that are good. No team dropped out of the playoff picture because of the system, but there were a couple of position changes. Most notably, Carolina jumping from 7th in the Metro to 5th, while the Capitals dropped from 7th to 5th.

Carolina only had 6 games decided by shootout while Washington had a league high 21! Carolina went from a team well out of the wild card picture to just missing it by 2 points.

The biggest thing I like about this system is the fact that it eliminates the false parity that the current system has. It also promotes winning the game earlier. As you can see, the top teams in the league were not affected much (other than a drop in overall points). As with the tie once the loser point was introduced, you could expect to see the overall number of shootouts drop if this system came into fruition.

The NHL should not eliminate the loser point, but instead work towards making the shootout less relevant.

RIP Robin Williams

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