How Much Should the Leafs Pay Jonathan Bernier?

On Wednesday both the Maple Leafs and Jonathan Bernier submitted their offers to an arbitrator. In a rare move, the Leafs elected to go to arbitration to negotiate a new contract with their number 1 goaltender. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Leafs are offering $2.89 million and Bernier is asking $5.1 million. Last season, Bernier had a salary of $3.4 million but a cap hit of just $2.9 million.

Arbitration takes into account comparables let's take a look at some comparibles and see where we can expect the salary to be. Remember, since the Leafs elected to go to arbitration, once the arbitrator makes his ruling, the Leafs have to take it.

Over his 2 seasons in Toronto, Bernier is 47-47-14 in 104 starts with a 2.78 GAA and a .920 sv%. The most important goaltending stat for me is save percentage. The Leafs gave up an egregious amount of shots over Bernier's tenure, so the fact that he's at .920 is pretty good. There were 2 goalies that had a .920 sv% last season (that played more than 10 games): Ondrej Pavelec and Marc-Andre Fleury. Next season, Pavelec will have a salary of $4.25 million with a cap hit of $3.9 million, whereas Fleury has a salary and cap hit of $5.75 million.

I'm more inclined to compare Bernier to Pavelec because their numbers are closer. Over the last 2 seasons, Pavelec is 44-42-15 in 107 starts with a 2.67 GAA and a .910 sv%. As you can see, Bernier's numbers (except GAA) are slightly better than Pavelec's, but they are relatively close. With that being said, I would expect Bernier to get a slightly higher contract than Pavelec, somewhere around $4.5 million.

Apparently the word is Bernier is looking for a longer term contract, and the Leafs want a similar contract as they gave Kadri. They want Bernier to prove his worth. Obviously, the Leafs are thinking long term here. Bernier will be 27 heading into this season, by the time the Leafs are competitive again Bernier could be 31 or 32. The Leafs don't want to handcuff themselves with long term deals like they did with Kessel, Clarkson, Lupul, and Phaneuf. There is some risk here, after next season, Bernier becomes a UFA, if the Leafs choose to lock up Bernier on a short-term contract, they risk him leaving for nothing, however, if they give him a long-term deal, it could handcuff them in the future.

If I'm Lamoriello, I'm giving Bernier a 3-year deal. Three years isn't a long contract, but it's not a short one either. If Bernier doesn't work out, that's fine, the Leafs are rebuilding and will not be good anyways, if he works out, great, by then the Leafs should be competing for a playoff spot and Bernier can help the Leafs moving forward. The two parties meet with the arbitrator on Friday, we should know the decision by the weekend.

Tulowitzki Tuesday: Blue Jays Acquire Troy Tulowitzki

Early Tuesday morning,  the Blue Jays acquired shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and 42-year-old relief pitcher LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies for shortstop Jose Reyes, pitching prospects Miguel Castro and Jeff Hoffman, as well as one other player.

Although the Jays didn't touch on their biggest issue on this roster, the pitching, they definitely upgraded on defense and offense. Tulowitzki is a career .299 hitter and over the last 3 seasons is hitting .316. Since 2007, Tulowitzki leads all shortstops in OPS (.893), HR (186), RBI (650), and WAR (40.0).

However, like Reyes, Tulowitzki has had his share of injury problems. In 2012, Tulowitzki required surgery on his groin, requiring him to miss most of the season; he was limited to just 47 games. In 2013, he missed 25 games with a fractured right rib. And last season, Tulowitzki injured his hip, which again required surgery, he was limited to 91 games that year. In fact, over the last 3 seasons (the length of time Reyes has been on the Jays), Tulowitzki has played 1 fewer game than Reyes (304). The Jays are definitely upgrading on defense and offense, but they are also getting another injury prone shortstop. These injuries are more worrying considering the fact the Blue Jays play on astroturf, how will his hip and groin hold up?

Injuries aside, I do like this trade, it's not like the Jays aren't used to having an injured shortstop, but it does not solve the problem the Jays have had for years: their pitching. But what this trade does do is give the Jays even more offense in their all-star offensive lineup. This gives the Jays a chance to offer one of their big bats up for a starting pitcher. The Jays offense is so potent that players like Encarnacion become expendable. As of this writing, the Jays lead the majors in runs scored with 528!

I don't expect this to be the only move AA makes before the July 31st trade deadline, if he is going to go after a big name starter (Jeff Samardzija anyone?), he now has more options, whether it's Encarnacion, Chris Colabello, or, dare I say it, Jose Bautista, they will still have power in their lineup. Most importantly, they can get a big name without sacrificing prospects. The Jays' core is ageing and their window of opportunity is slowly closing, now is the time they need to go for it all. Tulowitzki is certainly a step in that direction.

Lou Lamoriello Named Leafs GM: My Take

The Toronto Maple Leafs named 73-year-old Lou Lamoriello, the long time GM of the Devils, as General Manager. Lamoriello was General Manager of the New Jersey Devils from 1987-2015, at the end of this past season, he stepped down as GM to make way for Ray Shero; Lamoriello remained as President. In his first year with the Devils, he helped build the team to its first winning record in its then-14 year history (including the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies). In his 26 seasons with the Devils, they made the Stanley Cup playoffs 21 times, made the Stanley Cup Final 5 times, and won 3 Cups.

However, since the lockout, the Devils haven't been the powerhouse they were in the 90s and early 2000s. After making the playoffs 6 of the first 7 years since the lockout (including making the final in 2012), the Devils have gone 3 straight seasons missing the playoffs. This is due to an ageing core and a lack of prospects coming up through the pipeline.

This is a move that came out of left field for just about everyone except Brendan Shanahan and Lamoriello. It seemed like most of Leafs Nation believed Shanny would resume most of the responsibilities as GM along with Kyle Dubas. However, the experience in an NHL front office for most of the Leafs front office doesn't extend beyond their time with the Leafs. Lamoriello brings some much needed experience not just in terms being a GM, but in terms of knowing what a team needs to win.

Lamoriello is a GM that wins by building from the net out (it helped that he had Martin Brodeur for years). The Leafs ranked 27th in Goals Against last year (262), and were among the worst in term of puck possession. The Devils have famously played and won using the dreaded trap game under Lamoriello.

The signing, although unexpected, makes sense. As I said above, Lamoriello brings a wealth of experience to a very inexperienced Leafs front office. There are some risks however, Lamoriello was at his most successful in a pre-cap era. The Leafs have a clear plan ahead that they're looking to rebuild, which means they will be awful for at least a couple of years, everyone from Shanahan to Babcock and even the board above Shanny is supposedly on board with this plan. Lamoriello seemed to understand this was the direction the Leafs were taking, but he also apparently has full autonomy. If his famous impatience comes into play, can he derail the Leafs plans? (Cliff Fletcher 2.0 immediately comes to mind).

All that being said, having a mind like Lamoriello in the mix giving his two cents isn't a bad thing. Kyle Dubas now has the opportunity (for the next 3 years, at least) to watch one of the greatest hockey minds at work and learn from him. If they had an all-star team for front office staff, most of the team would be made up from the Leafs' front office. There are so many great minds at work here, if they stay the course and stick with the plan of a rebuild, the Leafs may finally, one day, be a competitive team with a shot to win the Cup.

How the (Original) Phil Kessel Trade Looks Today

Back in 2009 the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Phil Kessel from the Boston Bruins in exchange for a 2010 1st and 2nd round draft pick, and their 1st round draft pick in 2011. Unfortunately for the Leafs, they finished the 2009-2010 season in 29th and that 1st round pick became the 2nd overall pick. The Bruins selected Tyler Seguin 2nd overall and Jared Knight 32nd overall. In 2011, the Bruins selected Dougie Hamilton 9th overall.

For the first few years of Kessel's tenure in Toronto, the trade was debated. The 2nd overall pick was a high price to pay, but Phil Kessel was/is an elite talent that most teams would dream of having.

With the trade of Phil Kessel on July 1st, all 4 pieces of the original trade are no longer on Boston or Toronto's roster. Let's break down what the trade looks like today:

Tyler Seguin

Following Boston's loss in the Stanley Cup Final of the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season, Boston shipped Tyler Seguin along with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button to the Dallas Stars for Loui Eriksson, Joe Morrow, Reilly Smith, and Matt Fraser. 

Eriksson and Morrow are still with the team, but Rielly Smith was traded to Florida for Jimmy Hayes (originally a Leafs draft pick) and the Bruins lost Matt Fraser to Edmonton via waivers.

Dougie Hamilton

The morning of this year's NHL Entry Draft, the Bruins traded Dougie Hamilton to the Calgary Flames for their 2015 1st round pick (15th overall), their 2nd round pick (45th overall), and Washington's 2nd round pick (52nd overall). They used the three picks to select Zachary Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, and Jeremy Lauzon respectively.

Jared Knight

The Bruins traded Jared Knight to the Wild for Zach Phillips.

The Original trade now looks something like this:

To Toronto:

Kasperi Kapanen
Scott Harrington
Nick Spaling
Conditional 2016 1st Round Pick
Conditional 2016 3rd Round Pick


To Boston:

Loui Eriksson
Joe Morrow
Jimmy Hayes
Zachary Senyshyn
Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson
Jeremy Lauzon
Zach Phillips

Did the Leafs get enough for Kessel?

This is a question I've seen answered on many blogs and news stories, here's my take:

The Leafs could have gotten more for Kessel, no doubt. But given where the Leafs and Penguins are, the trade made sense. The Leafs needed to get rid of Kessel for many reasons. For one, the Leafs are in a rebuild, you don't need a 30+ (borderline 40) goal scorer in your lineup if you want to rebuild. Secondly, it was fair to Kessel, an elite talent like him deserves a legitimate shot at trying for the Cup. Thirdly, the Leafs needed to dismantle their core, Kessel was a huge part of that, trading him changes the core completely.

I'll admit, I'm a little disappointed we won't get to see Kessel under Babcock, but it was time to move on. The most unfortunate thing is the Leafs wasted the "Kessel Era," instead of surrounding him with talent, they surrounded him with Tyler Bozak. With Crosby, there is very little doubt in my mind that Kessel will hit 40 goals next season. I wish Kessel nothing but the best in PIttsburgh.

Like the original Kessel trade, we won't know who the clear winner is for a few years. At best, the Leafs broke even with the original trade, in reality, they lost it (imagine how good Seguin, a 1st line centre, and Dougie Hamilton, a top 2 defenseman, would look in a Leafs jersey right now). For the first time in over a decade, the Leafs have a clear path they want to follow, and for now at least, they look like they're sticking to it, with a priority on getting younger and developing prospects to create a new core. I might revisit this one again next year to see where the trade is at following the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.