Why I was Reluctant to Accept "Fancy Stats"

This offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs made headlines by hiring Kyle Dubas, former GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, and he's only 28! This hiring made the blogosphere happy because Dubas is into the so called "Fancy Stats" and used them with the Greyhounds.

So what are Fancy Stats? For an in-depth look at Corsi and Fenwick, you should go here. The TL;DR version is that Corsi is "the plus/minus of shots directed at the net for (blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc.)." If you have a positive Corsi, you are on the ice for more shots for and therefore the team possesses the puck more when you're on the ice. Fenwick is the same thing, except it doesn't take into consideration blocked shots (Fenwick sees blocked shots as a skill, not a random event).

Before this season, Corsi and Fenwick were mostly used by bloggers, and since the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season, bloggers were calling for the Leafs to drop off the face of the earth because of their poor possession numbers. In 2013, we saw the Leafs monumental collapse to the Bruins (I'm not even linking to the video, too many bad memories), and in 2014 we saw the Leafs...fall off the face of the Earth. As a result, you could hear the collective "I TOLD YOU SO!!!" from the bloggers.

So why did I resist? The idea Corsi and Fenwick make sense: the more you control the puck, the better chance you have to score. But my problem was not with the stats themselves. My problem was with the keyboard hero bloggers out there who would gang up on anyone who would even dare to question them. The conversation was never "hey guys, look at these new stats, they might be useful." The conversation was "these are new stats and if you don't think they have any merit, you're an idiot and no nothing about hockey!"

Why would anyone want to agree with people who react that way? When the Leafs finally did hire an analytics team, proponent of Fancy Stats Down Goes Brown had this humble blog post.The TL;DR version: we were right, you were wrong, you're all stupid. 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Down Goes Brown, I've been a fan of his work for about 4 or 5 years now, I was just thoroughly unimpressed with how even he acted through all of this.

Now I was never berated on Twitter for disparaging Fancy Stats, I kept quiet about it and just observed from the outside. 

So what was the point of this blog post? I just wanted to voice my opinions before the upcoming NHL season now that the "Great Stats War" is over. I'm happy the Leafs have stepped in a new direction and are looking at Corsi and Fenwick. It's a huge step for an old team reluctant to change. I'm just not happy with how we got here.

NHL Announces New Rules for 2014-2015

Last Thursday, the NHL announced rule changes for the upcoming 2014-2015 season. Among the changes, the biggest ones are:

• The trapezoid area will be expanded.
• The Spin-O-Rama is no longer allowed in penalty shots or the shootout.
• Slight expansion to video review.
• Fines for Diving/Embellishment.
• Overtime changes.

The Trapezoid

Since the NHL decided to put it in after the 2004-2005 lockout, I have hated it. I know the NHL thinks it's adding offence, but if anything, it slows the game down. The "new" trapezoid will be expanded by 2 feet from the posts. This might be the first step of the NHL eventually phasing it out.

No More Spin-O-Rama

I loved seeing the Spin-O-Rama in the shootout (and for penalty shots as well). I found that whenever a team complained about the move, it was because they lost. However, because of all the griping I'm glad this move has been taking out. There are a couple of reasons for the NHL removing the Spin-O-Rama. First of all, it's nearly impossible to tell if there is forward motion. Secondly, refs couldn't tell whether or not a player was interfering with a goaltender during the move, whether that meant sending a bunch of snow in their face or by physically bumping them. S

The end of the spin-o-rama also means the end of the debates about whether the spin-o-rama should be legal or not. That is a big win for everyone.

Video Review

As per the NHL:

Rule 38.4 (viii) has been modified to allow broader discretion to Hockey Operations to assist the referees in determining the legitimacy of all potential goals (e.g., to ensure they are “good hockey goals”).  The revised Rule will allow Hockey Operations to correct a broader array of situations where video review clearly establishes that a “goal” or “no
goal” call on the ice has been made in error.   The new expanded rule will
also allow Hockey Operations to provide guidance to referees on goal and potential goal plays where the referee has blown his whistle (or intended to blow his whistle) after having lost sight of the puck.

Essentially, the goal the Devils scored on the Kings last season would be reviewable. From what I understand, NHL hockey ops would call the refs from Toronto and declare the goal no good. According to Pierre LeBrun, other controversial goals, such as offsides, and goalie interferences will be made note of by the NHL. The league will then make a report to bring to the GMs in March. I'm not sure if that means if this goal would still count.

Fines for Diving

This is my favourite one. The NHL will now fine people who are penalised for diving. The fines are as followed:

        1       Warning 
        2       $2,000
        3       $3,000
        4       $4,000
        5       $5,000
        6       $5,000
        7       $5,000
        8       $5,000  

According to Darren Dreger, the NHL will release a weekly press release with all the diving fines on it. Players are also able to appeal the fines. All of the appeals will be dealt with by Gary Bettman. I have a feeling Ryan Kesler's wallet might be a little lighter this year...

Changes to Overtime

Starting this season, the teams will have to switch sides for overtime, therefore providing a longer change for the teams. The ice will also undergo a dry scrape prior to the start of overtime. Coaches will also no longer need to submit a list of their first 3 shooters in the shootout. 

To me, this sounds like the beginning of the end of the shootout. I've already talked about how to make the shootout less relevant by revamping the point system. This is a good start for the NHL, it will be interesting to see if this will actually make a difference (future blog idea?). The best part about make teams switch sides on the ice is that it doesn't really change the game, yet it still has the potential to make a big difference. 

The AHL has adopted a change to overtime that will see 3-on-3 overtime after the first whistle after 4 minutes of play. The NHL has used the AHL to experiment with rule changes in the past. Maybe next year this will be implemented in the NHL as well. 

The Revolving Door of Coaches

Toronto FC announced last Sunday that they were relieving head coach Ryan Nelsen of his duties, and naming Greg Vanney as his replacement. Vanney will be the soccer club's 9th coach in 8 seasons. That's not a good record. but has a professional sports franchise in Toronto ever had this much instability at the position prior to TFC? I decided to look at the history of coaches for the Blue Jays, Leafs, Argos, and Raptors and see which decade had the most coaches:

Toronto St. Patricks/Toronto Maple Leafs

Decade with Most Coaches: 1920s

Number of Coaches: 9

Coaches: Frank Heffernan (1919-1920), Harvey Sproule (1920), Frank Carroll (1920-1921), George O'Donoghue (1921-1923), Charles Querrie (1923-1924, 1926-1927), and Eddie Powers (1926-1927), Mike Rodden (1927), Alex Romeril (1927), Conn Smythe (1927-1930).

What Happened?

Heffernan resigned as coach, he is credited as coaching for 12 games. 

Sproule replaced Heffernan as coach, but was co-owner of the St. Pats franchise. He resigned at the end of the season, and became a referee in the OHA.

Carroll coached the St. Pats to their first berth in the finals, but I was unable to find out why he left the team. He sadly committed suicide in 1938.

O'Donoghue coached the St. Pats to the Stanley Cup, the only Stanley Cup the St. Pats would win. He was fired after 5 games during the 1922-1923 season. 

Querrie had 2 stints as coach of the St. Pats. In his 1st stint he finished with a total record of 21-21-1. In 1926-1927 he coached for 29 games. After finishing 5th in the Canadian division, he resigned.

Powers would bring the St. pats to the finals once again. But after his 2nd season, he would leave the team to coach the Boston Tigers of the CAHL where he won a championship in 1929.

Rodden was fired after only 2 games, he went 0-2-0. 

Romeril coached for 1 season before becoming an NHL referee.

All of the above coaches only coached for the St. Pats/Maple Leafs franchise in the NHL.

Smythe coached the Leafs for 4 seasons before resigning as coach in 1930. He coached on an interim basis for 1 game in 1931. 

Toronto Argonauts

Decade with Most Coaches: 1990s

Number of Coaches: 8

Now we can give CFL teams a little bit of a break, the league isn't nearly as prosperous as any of the "Big 4" leagues and obviously the teams struggle a little more financially. 

The 90s began with "The Don" Don Matthews as head coach. That would be the first of two stints as Argos coach during the 90s (he would of a 3rd sting in the 2000s). He lead the Argonauts to a 10-8 record, and he brought them to the East final where they lost to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

In 1991 the Argos were purchased by Bruce McNall, Wayne Gretzky and John Candy. Adam Rita made his CFL coaching debut with the Argos that year. He won his one and only Grey Cup that year.The following season however, the Argos started 3-8 and he was fired and replaced with Dennis Meyer in 1992.

Meyer finished out the remaining 7 games with a 3-4 record. But after a 1-9 start in 1993 he was also fired. Then GM Bob O'Billovich (who previously coached the Argos from 1982-1989) took over as coach to close out the season.

The next season, O'Billovich hired Mike Faragalli. Faragalli lasted only 9 games before his contract was terminated by O'Billovich, partly due to the Argonauts struggling financially; they were on the verge of folding. O'Billovich took over coaching duties for the rest of the season.

O'Billovich re-hired Don Matthews. In his first 3 seasons he won 2 Grey Cups with the Argos. His third Grey Cup in a row he won 1 Grey Cup coaching the only American team to ever win it: the Baltimore Stallions. Matthew remained as Argos coach until 1998.

Jim Barker replaced Matthews as head coach in 1999, he became the youngest coach in CFL history. The Argos lost in the conference quarter-finals to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Following the season, Barker went on to become the Offensive Co-ordinator for the XFL's only championship team: The Los Angeles Xtreme.

Toronto Blue Jays

Decade with the Most Coaches Managers: 2000s

Number of Coaches Managers: 7

The Blue Jays have actually done alright in terms of head coaches. In their nearly 40 year history, they've only had 20 total managers, and 15 different ones. The 2000s were a decade of mediocrity. While the 80s held 2 playoff berths, and the 90s held 2 World Series victories, the 2000s contained a team hovering around the .500 mark.

The 2000s started with Jim Fregosi in his 2nd year as manager, but after a 3rd place finish in the AL East for the 2nd consecutive year, the Jays did not renew his contract.

In 2001, the Blue Jays hired former team catcher and current Blue Jays broadcaster Buck Martinez in as manager. Martinez managed for 159 games in 2001, unfortunately Martinez's mother-in-law passed away and Martinez was absent for the seasons final 3 games and replaced on an interim basis with Cookie Rojas.

Martinez returned during the 2002 season, but was fired after 53 games after the Jays went 20-33. Carlos Tosca was then hired to replace Martinez. Under Tosca, the Jays went 58-51 the rest of the way and finished 3rd in the AL East for a 5th consecutive year. The Blue Jays finished 10 games above .500 in 2003 with an 86-76 record but for the 6th consecutive year, the Blue Jays finished 3rd in the AL East. That would all change in 2004.

The Blue Jays had a horrendous start to 2004, only winning 47 of their first 111 games. As a result, Tosca was fired and replaced with John Gibbons. The Blue Jays finished 2004 with a 67-94 record (.416), they're worst winning percentage since 1981. The Jays had above .500 records under Gibby from 2006-2008. 2006 was their best year with Gibbons, after acquiring a number of stars, the Blue Jays finished 2nd in the AL East but 10 games back of the Yankees and 8 games back of the Tigers for the Wild Card spot. After a tough slump in 2008, Gibbons was fired and replaced with former manager Cito Gaston.

Gaston is the only manager in Jays history to being them to a World Series. After replacing Gibbons, the Jays closed out 2008 with a 51-37 record. Gaston retired after the 2010 season but he still remains with the team.

Toronto Raptors

Well, the Raptors haven't even been around for 20 years yet. So we won't count them. They've only had 8 head coaches in their history.

What can we Conclude?

The only Toronto teams that come close to matching that sad number of TFC's head coaches within a decade are the Leafs and Argos who were going through financial difficulties during the time. As far as I know, TFC isn't going through any financial troubles, they're just bad. If you want an example of a team that doesn't know what it's doing, look no further than TFC.

Steve Moore Settles

Former Colorado Avalanche player Steve Moore has announced that he has settled his decade-long lawsuit with then-Canucks forward Todd Bertuzzi. Back in 2004, Steve Moore was the victim of an on-ice attack from Bertuzzi. The incident ended Moore's NHL career, he was seeking damages and lost wages, Moore's lawyers said he was seeking $68 million.

This settlement ends an ugly chapter for the NHL. The case was scheduled to go to trial next Friday, if it were to go to trial, it would have brought forth a lot of the unknowns that goes on inside a team's locker room. How many times have we heard players say "it stays in the locker room." Moore argued that Bertuzzi's actions were caused in part from direction of then-Canucks coach Marc Crawford.

The whole incident stemmed from Moore injuring then-Canucks captain David Naslund in a previous meeting. Interviews with Canucks players leading up to the next game shows that they were seeking repercussions.

“There’s no way that punk will be in their lineup in March,” Bertuzzi told reporters in 2004.

Bertuzzi's teammate Brad May put it more bluntly: "There’s definitely a bounty on his head. . . . It’s going to be fun when we get him."

Following the incident, Bertuzzi was suspended for the remainder of the season and playoffs (13 regular season games, 7 playoff games). The following season was the 2004-2005 lockout season. Bertuzzi, along with most other players, elected to play in Europe. However, the IIHF extended the NHL's suspension to preclude him from playing there.

During the lockout, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman held a re-instatement hearing for Bertuzzi and announced on August 8th, 2005 that Bertuzzi had been reinstated and would be playing in the 2005-2006 season. However, during that season, Bertuzzi was heckled whenever the team was on the road. The Canucks missed the playoffs for the first time in 4 years. Then GM Dave Nonis sent Bertuzzi to Florida as part of a package deal that sent Roberto Luongo to Vancouver.

There is absolutely no room for this kind of garbage in the NHL, and it's great to see that the case has been settled. No dollar amount has been announced, and we may never find out what it is. In my opinion, the only silver lining of Todd Bertuzzi still being in the NHL is that he's banking enough money to afford paying Moore.


Moore has set up a foundation, the Steve Moore Foundation. From the website: "The Steve Moore Foundation focuses on the prevention and treatment of concussion and similar serious head and neck injuries in sport." If anyone is interested in donating they can donate here.

Sidney Crosby in Jail?: Getting it out There Before Getting it Right

On Wednesday, QMI Agency reported that Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby was arrested in Ottawa on driving-related charges. From the original story:

“Pittsburgh Penguins centre Sidney Crosby was arrested by Ottawa Police late Tuesday while driving a rented Porsche, sources have told QMI Agency. Reasons of his arrest were unknown, but appear to be driving related."

 Unfortunately for QMI, none of this actually happened. In fact, Crosby was not even in Canada! Both the Ottawa police and the Pittsburgh Penguins released statements confirming that Sid had no dealings with the police and that he was in Vail, Colorado preparing for training camp.

Vail? Say, that rhymes with jail! Yes, it is completely possible that this person heard "Sidney Crosby is in jail" instead of "Vail." Now, if I was in a position to possibly break the biggest hockey story of the year, I would probably want to clarify what I just heard:

"Jail!? In prison?"

"No, you must have misheard me, I said Vail. He's in Colorado, training."

One of my biggest pet peeves as a journalist is not getting the story right. Now I understand that sometimes things happen, and things could be reported falsely, especially with social media. But there are ways to confirm something you hear. This story should never have made it out, and it doesn't just stop at the reporter.

All news agencies want to be the first to break a news story, it shows your viewers/readers that you can be reliable. Twitter has made breaking news almost instantaneous, but even more importantly than being first, you have got to be correct. Especially with a story like this.

There's no doubt that if this story was true, this would be the biggest hockey story of the last couple years, maybe even the last decade or couple of decades. For all you aspiring journalists out there, if you ever get a huge, potentially career changing story like this, make sure you quadruple-check your facts!



This story also caused some hilarious reactions on Twitter. You can check them out here.