Lou Lamoriello Named Leafs GM: My Take

The Toronto Maple Leafs named 73-year-old Lou Lamoriello, the long time GM of the Devils, as General Manager. Lamoriello was General Manager of the New Jersey Devils from 1987-2015, at the end of this past season, he stepped down as GM to make way for Ray Shero; Lamoriello remained as President. In his first year with the Devils, he helped build the team to its first winning record in its then-14 year history (including the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies). In his 26 seasons with the Devils, they made the Stanley Cup playoffs 21 times, made the Stanley Cup Final 5 times, and won 3 Cups.

However, since the lockout, the Devils haven't been the powerhouse they were in the 90s and early 2000s. After making the playoffs 6 of the first 7 years since the lockout (including making the final in 2012), the Devils have gone 3 straight seasons missing the playoffs. This is due to an ageing core and a lack of prospects coming up through the pipeline.

This is a move that came out of left field for just about everyone except Brendan Shanahan and Lamoriello. It seemed like most of Leafs Nation believed Shanny would resume most of the responsibilities as GM along with Kyle Dubas. However, the experience in an NHL front office for most of the Leafs front office doesn't extend beyond their time with the Leafs. Lamoriello brings some much needed experience not just in terms being a GM, but in terms of knowing what a team needs to win.

Lamoriello is a GM that wins by building from the net out (it helped that he had Martin Brodeur for years). The Leafs ranked 27th in Goals Against last year (262), and were among the worst in term of puck possession. The Devils have famously played and won using the dreaded trap game under Lamoriello.

The signing, although unexpected, makes sense. As I said above, Lamoriello brings a wealth of experience to a very inexperienced Leafs front office. There are some risks however, Lamoriello was at his most successful in a pre-cap era. The Leafs have a clear plan ahead that they're looking to rebuild, which means they will be awful for at least a couple of years, everyone from Shanahan to Babcock and even the board above Shanny is supposedly on board with this plan. Lamoriello seemed to understand this was the direction the Leafs were taking, but he also apparently has full autonomy. If his famous impatience comes into play, can he derail the Leafs plans? (Cliff Fletcher 2.0 immediately comes to mind).

All that being said, having a mind like Lamoriello in the mix giving his two cents isn't a bad thing. Kyle Dubas now has the opportunity (for the next 3 years, at least) to watch one of the greatest hockey minds at work and learn from him. If they had an all-star team for front office staff, most of the team would be made up from the Leafs' front office. There are so many great minds at work here, if they stay the course and stick with the plan of a rebuild, the Leafs may finally, one day, be a competitive team with a shot to win the Cup.

Why I was Reluctant to Accept "Fancy Stats"

This offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs made headlines by hiring Kyle Dubas, former GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, and he's only 28! This hiring made the blogosphere happy because Dubas is into the so called "Fancy Stats" and used them with the Greyhounds.

So what are Fancy Stats? For an in-depth look at Corsi and Fenwick, you should go here. The TL;DR version is that Corsi is "the plus/minus of shots directed at the net for (blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc.)." If you have a positive Corsi, you are on the ice for more shots for and therefore the team possesses the puck more when you're on the ice. Fenwick is the same thing, except it doesn't take into consideration blocked shots (Fenwick sees blocked shots as a skill, not a random event).

Before this season, Corsi and Fenwick were mostly used by bloggers, and since the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season, bloggers were calling for the Leafs to drop off the face of the earth because of their poor possession numbers. In 2013, we saw the Leafs monumental collapse to the Bruins (I'm not even linking to the video, too many bad memories), and in 2014 we saw the Leafs...fall off the face of the Earth. As a result, you could hear the collective "I TOLD YOU SO!!!" from the bloggers.

So why did I resist? The idea Corsi and Fenwick make sense: the more you control the puck, the better chance you have to score. But my problem was not with the stats themselves. My problem was with the keyboard hero bloggers out there who would gang up on anyone who would even dare to question them. The conversation was never "hey guys, look at these new stats, they might be useful." The conversation was "these are new stats and if you don't think they have any merit, you're an idiot and no nothing about hockey!"

Why would anyone want to agree with people who react that way? When the Leafs finally did hire an analytics team, proponent of Fancy Stats Down Goes Brown had this humble blog post.The TL;DR version: we were right, you were wrong, you're all stupid. 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Down Goes Brown, I've been a fan of his work for about 4 or 5 years now, I was just thoroughly unimpressed with how even he acted through all of this.

Now I was never berated on Twitter for disparaging Fancy Stats, I kept quiet about it and just observed from the outside. 

So what was the point of this blog post? I just wanted to voice my opinions before the upcoming NHL season now that the "Great Stats War" is over. I'm happy the Leafs have stepped in a new direction and are looking at Corsi and Fenwick. It's a huge step for an old team reluctant to change. I'm just not happy with how we got here.