Sunday, 21 September 2014

Why I was Reluctant to Accept "Fancy Stats"



This offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs made headlines by hiring Kyle Dubas, former GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, and he's only 28! This hiring made the blogosphere happy because Dubas is into the so called "Fancy Stats" and used them with the Greyhounds.

So what are Fancy Stats? For an in-depth look at Corsi and Fenwick, you should go here. The TL;DR version is that Corsi is "the plus/minus of shots directed at the net for (blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc.)." If you have a positive Corsi, you are on the ice for more shots for and therefore the team possesses the puck more when you're on the ice. Fenwick is the same thing, except it doesn't take into consideration blocked shots (Fenwick sees blocked shots as a skill, not a random event).

Before this season, Corsi and Fenwick were mostly used by bloggers, and since the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season, bloggers were calling for the Leafs to drop off the face of the earth because of their poor possession numbers. In 2013, we saw the Leafs monumental collapse to the Bruins (I'm not even linking to the video, too many bad memories), and in 2014 we saw the Leafs...fall off the face of the Earth. As a result, you could hear the collective "I TOLD YOU SO!!!" from the bloggers.

So why did I resist? The idea Corsi and Fenwick make sense: the more you control the puck, the better chance you have to score. But my problem was not with the stats themselves. My problem was with the keyboard hero bloggers out there who would gang up on anyone who would even dare to question them. The conversation was never "hey guys, look at these new stats, they might be useful." The conversation was "these are new stats and if you don't think they have any merit, you're an idiot and no nothing about hockey!"

Why would anyone want to agree with people who react that way? When the Leafs finally did hire an analytics team, proponent of Fancy Stats Down Goes Brown had this humble blog post.The TL;DR version: we were right, you were wrong, you're all stupid. 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Down Goes Brown, I've been a fan of his work for about 4 or 5 years now, I was just thoroughly unimpressed with how even he acted through all of this.

Now I was never berated on Twitter for disparaging Fancy Stats, I kept quiet about it and just observed from the outside. 

So what was the point of this blog post? I just wanted to voice my opinions before the upcoming NHL season now that the "Great Stats War" is over. I'm happy the Leafs have stepped in a new direction and are looking at Corsi and Fenwick. It's a huge step for an old team reluctant to change. I'm just not happy with how we got here.

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