This offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs made
headlines by hiring Kyle Dubas, former GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds,
and he's only 28! This hiring made the blogosphere happy because Dubas is into
the so called "Fancy Stats" and used them with the Greyhounds.
So what are Fancy Stats? For an in-depth look
at Corsi and Fenwick, you should go here. The TL;DR version is that
Corsi is "the plus/minus of shots directed at the net for (blocked
shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc.)."
If you have a positive Corsi, you are on the ice for more shots for and
therefore the team possesses the puck more when you're on the ice. Fenwick is
the same thing, except it doesn't take into consideration blocked shots
(Fenwick sees blocked shots as a skill, not a random event).
Before this season, Corsi and Fenwick were
mostly used by bloggers, and since the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season,
bloggers were calling for the Leafs to drop off the face of the earth because
of their poor possession numbers. In 2013, we
saw the Leafs monumental collapse to the Bruins (I'm not even linking to the
video, too many bad memories), and in 2014 we saw the Leafs...fall off the face
of the Earth. As a result, you could hear the collective "I TOLD YOU SO!!!"
from the bloggers.
So why did I resist? The idea Corsi and Fenwick
make sense: the more you control the puck, the better chance you have to score.
But my problem was not with the stats themselves. My problem was with the
keyboard hero bloggers out there who would gang up on anyone who would even
dare to question them. The conversation was never "hey guys, look at these
new stats, they might be useful." The conversation was "these are new
stats and if you don't think they have any merit, you're an idiot and no nothing
about hockey!"
Why would anyone want to agree with people who
react that way? When the Leafs finally did hire an analytics team, proponent of
Fancy Stats Down Goes Brown had this humble blog post.The TL;DR version: we
were right, you were wrong, you're all stupid.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Down
Goes Brown, I've been a fan of his work for about 4 or 5 years now, I was just
thoroughly unimpressed with how even he acted through all of this.
Now I was never berated on Twitter
for disparaging Fancy Stats, I kept quiet about it and just observed
from the outside.
So what was the point of this blog post? I just
wanted to voice my opinions before the upcoming NHL season now that the
"Great Stats War" is over. I'm happy the Leafs have stepped in a new
direction and are looking at Corsi and Fenwick. It's a huge step for an old
team reluctant to change. I'm just not happy with how we got here.
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